J. Atmos. Orography is well known by local meteorologists to be important for modifying rainfall over much of southern Africa. Note that UKMO statistics are computed over the full ocean track of the storm (4–23 February) whereas the La Réunion results are only for 8–21 February (24-h forecast) or 8–19 February (48-h forecast). It resulted in loss of life, damage to homes, fields, schools and roads, and disruption to livelihoods. 0000003750 00000 n Late summer 2000 was very wet, both in flooded Mozambique and on the arid western side of southern Africa in Namibia. Olivier, J., 1993: Flood producing weather systems: Tropical cyclones. Six hours prior to landfall, Eline became an intense tropical cyclone just 45 km from the Mozambique coast. 9b,c) where the composite displays cool anomalies. TC Eline made landfall in Mozambique at about 0600 UTC 22 February 2000 after tracking over 7000 km west across the tropical south Indian Ocean (Figs. J. Climatol, 11 , 877–888. We thank Dr. Warren Tennant, SAWS, for helpful discussions. In Mozambique, an … Only about 5% of TCs in the southwest Indian Ocean over the last 50 years actually made landfall somewhere along the east coast of southern Africa. Phys. Since then the remnants of storm have been causing heavy rains over Zimbabwe and Malawi. Digest, 22 , 25–36. Climate, 15 , 3096–3103. Thus, conditions over the landmass were, together with those of the south Indian Ocean, very favorable for Eline's intensification near Mozambique and penetration 2000 km inland. This precludes detailed assessment for these countries; however, where possible, comments about local forecasts are made. (b) SST anomalies for Jan 2000. Contour interval 1°C with SST above 28°C shaded. Reason, C. J. C., , Allan R. J. , , Lindesay J. Since then the remnants of storm have been causing heavy rains over Zimbabwe and Malawi. With the exception of Jury and Pathack (1991), Jury (1993), and Jury et al. 9a, and these SSTs were above average for both January and February (Figs. Together with the hurricane warnings issued on 16–17 February, they helped in reducing damage to eastern Madagascar as Eline crossed the country on 17–18 February. width: 100%; This marked the end of wet conditions over southern Namibia until the third and final significant rainfall event of summer 1999/2000 about a month later. padding: 0; Heming, J. T., 1994: Keeping an eye on the hurricane—Verification of tropical cyclone forecast tracks at the Met Office. Eline also killed 12 people in Zimbabwe and 21 people in South Africa. Reynolds, R. W., , and Smith T. M. , 1994: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimal interpolation. Source: How we can minimise future cyclone damage – NewsDay For the UKMO model, the mean AT errors along Eline's track were 17, 94, and 152 km for the 24-, 48-, and 72-h forecasts, respectively. At least 172 deaths have been reported and 327 people are reportedly missing in Zimbabwe (OCHA, 27 March 2019). Kummerow, C., , Barnes C. W. , , Kozu T. , , Shiue J. , , and Simpson J. , 1998: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) sensor package. The last major cyclone to reach Zimbabwe, Cyclone Idai in March last year, hit Chimanimani. A preliminary study of climatological associations and characteristics of tropical cyclones in the SW Indian Ocean. Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimal interpolation. At 0600 UTC 22 February, the bulletin noted that the eye was on the Mozambique coast and forecast that Eline would track into Zimbabwe within 36–48 h. trailer << /Size 360 /Info 313 0 R /Root 335 0 R /Prev 536193 /ID[<2f799876b8a47f85ab14491aa176176b>] >> startxref 0 %%EOF 335 0 obj << /Pages 332 0 R /Type /Catalog /Metadata 333 0 R >> endobj 358 0 obj << /S 1395 /Filter /FlateDecode /Length 359 0 R >> stream Mid- to low-level negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies (Fig. Although inland penetration is highly unusual, there were in fact three large-scale precursor features in existence over the region that have previously been identified as favoring a westward track of TCs (Olivier 1993). Zimbabwe, like its neighbours Mozambique and Malawi, is reeling from the effects of Cyclone Idai, which caused loss of lives and left a trail of destruction. 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